Fisheries

Comprehensive incentives for reducing Chinook salmon bycatch in the Bering Sea walleye Pollock fishery: Individual tradable encounter credits

After record salmon bycatch in 2007 by the Eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands fishery for walleye Pollock, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) concluded that additional management strategies were necessary to further control …

Ecosystem‐based forecasts of recruitment in two menhaden species

Gulf (*Brevoortia patronus*, Clupeidae) and Atlantic menhaden (*Brevoortia tyrannus*, Clupeidae) support large fisheries that have shown substantial variability over several decades, in part, due to dependence on annual recruitment. Nevertheless, …

Stock assessment and end-to-end ecosystem models alter dynamics of fisheries data

Although all models are simplified approximations of reality, they remain useful tools for understanding, predicting, and managing populations and ecosystems. However, a model’s utility is contingent on its suitability for a given task. Here, we …

Forecasting

Predicting the future state of ecosystems.

Equation-free mechanistic ecosystem forecasting using empirical dynamic modeling

It is well known that current equilibrium-based models fall short as predictive descriptions of natural ecosystems, and particularly of fisheries systems that exhibit nonlinear dynamics. For example, model parameters assumed to be fixed constants may …

Complex dynamics may limit prediction in marine fisheries

Complex nonlinear dynamics in marine fisheries create challenges for prediction and management, yet the extent to which they occur in fisheries is not well known. Using nonlinear forecasting models, we analysed over 200 time series of survey …

Modeling dynamic interactions and coherence between marine zooplankton and fishes linked to environmental variability

The dynamics of marine fishes are closely related to lower trophic levels and the environment. Quantitatively understanding ecosystem dynamics linking environmental variability and prey resources to exploited fishes is crucial for ecosystem-based …

A nonlinear, low data requirement model for producing spatially explicit fishery forecasts

Spatial variability can confound accurate estimates of catch per unit effort (CPUE), especially in highly migratory species. The incorporation of spatial structure into fishery stock assessment models should ultimately improve forecasts of stock …

Predicting climate effects on Pacific sardine

For many marine species and habitats, climate change and overfishing present a double threat. To manage marine resources effectively, it is necessary to adapt management to changes in the physical environment. Simple relationships between …

Are exploited fish populations stable?