The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting

Successfully predicting the future states of systems that are complex, stochastic and potentially chaotic is a major challenge. Model forecasting error (FE) is the usual measure of success; however, model predictions provide no insights into the …

Fluctuating interaction network and time-varying stability of a natural fish community

Ecological theory suggests that large-scale patterns such as community stability can be influenced by changes in interspecific interactions that arise from the behavioural and/or physiological responses of individual species varying over time[1–3]. …

Stock assessment and end-to-end ecosystem models alter dynamics of fisheries data

Although all models are simplified approximations of reality, they remain useful tools for understanding, predicting, and managing populations and ecosystems. However, a model’s utility is contingent on its suitability for a given task. Here, we …

Information leverage in interconnected ecosystems: Overcoming the curse of dimensionality

In ecological analysis, complexity has been regarded as an obstacle to overcome. Here we present a straightforward approach for addressing complexity in dynamic interconnected systems. We show that complexity, in the form of multiple interacting …

Causal inference

Identifying causal interactions among time series.


R package for empirical dynamic modeling

Complex dynamics may limit prediction in marine fisheries

Complex nonlinear dynamics in marine fisheries create challenges for prediction and management, yet the extent to which they occur in fisheries is not well known. Using nonlinear forecasting models, we analysed over 200 time series of survey …

Detecting causality in complex ecosystems

Identifying causal networks is important for effective policy and management recommendations on climate, epidemiology, financial regulation, and much else. Here, we introduce a method, based on nonlinear state space reconstruction, that can …

Are exploited fish populations stable?

Complex systems: Cooperative network dynamics

Nested, or hierarchically arranged, mutualisms allow ecosystems to support more species than they otherwise would. But in this and other contexts, the growth of such networks could carry a heavy price.